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Money New research debunks the myth that 'Australian' home prices are falling

17:33  24 may  2018
17:33  24 may  2018 Source:

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Australian home prices are falling.

However, some homes are falling faster than others. And some aren't falling at all.

That's the finding of new research from CoreLogic which found that rather than broad-based declines across the nation, it's actually only Australia's most expensive properties taking the hit at present.

"National dwelling values have fallen by 0.3% over the three months to April 2018," the group says.

"While headline figures have slipped lower over the period, across the 10 value-based segments of the national market, values have only fallen across the 8th, 9th and 10th most expensive segments while the 7th most expensive segment recorded no change in values.

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"While the most expensive properties in the country have seen value falls over the quarter, the most affordable 10% of properties have recorded the greatest quarterly value increase, up 1.6%."

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That point is rammed home by the chart below from CoreLogic, showing that prices over the past three months have only fallen in homes valued between $635,437 and above, with prices for more lower valued housing actually increasing over this period.

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The chart also demonstrates that over 12 months, only homes valued $1,212,486 or above have fallen, with values in all other prices ranges rising over this period.

"Only the most expensive 10% of properties recorded a fall in values over the year and all other sectors recorded annual growth in excess of the 0.2% national average," CoreLogic says.

"This data highlights just how weakness across the most expensive property values can exacerbate weakness across the broader housing market."

The group says homes in low and mid-tier price ranges may be supported by a surge in first home buyer activity, thanks in part to stamp duty discounts introduced by the New South Wales and Victorian state governments last year, along with mounting affordability constraints at the higher value end of the market.

This lead indicator on Australian home prices points to further declines ahead

  This lead indicator on Australian home prices points to further declines ahead Australian capital city home prices have been falling for six months , seeing annual growth turn negative for the first time since 2012.This indicator from Morgan Stanley suggests there'll not only be further price weakness in the months ahead, but also the likelihood of renewed softening in building approvals. It says these two factors will likely weigh on household consumption and building activity, seeing Australian economic growth decelerate, rather than accelerate, this year.It's Morgan Stanley’s Australian housing model, known as MSHAUS for short.

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"The country-wide trends will also reflect that fact that more expensive properties are located in the capital cities, or more specifically Sydney and, to a lesser extent, Melbourne," it says.

"The overall weaker performance across these two housing markets will place some downwards bias across the higher deciles."

That's clearly evident in the next two charts showing price changes in Sydney and Melbourne by price decile over the past three months and year.

Here's how the Sydney market fared over this period.

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And here's the same chart for Melbourne.

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In contrast to nationally where values have fallen only at the very top of the market, almost all homes in Sydney have experienced price declines over the past year. Around half of all homes have also fallen in Melbourne, concentrated in the upper-end of the market.

Because of the sheer size and cost of housing in these cities, when prices fall there, it invariably acts to drag down the national average.

And while there are exceptions in individual regions, when you talk about the top end of Australian housing, you're largely talking about Sydney and Melbourne.

Indeed, outside of Australia's mining capitals of Perth and Darwin, prices over the past year in other locations are almost unilaterally higher.

"The broad trend findings in the report showed that values have been falling on an annual basis across the tenth decile, the premium end of the market, while all other valuation deciles enjoyed positive, albeit restrained, growth over the twelve months to April," said Cameron Kusher, Research Analyst at CoreLogic.

So no, "Australian" home prices aren't falling. Only some are. Mostly in Sydney and pockets of Melbourne, along with Perth and Darwin.

Australian home prices fall for an eighth consecutive month .
Australian home prices fell again in May, dragged lower once again by weakness in Sydney and Melbourne, the nation's largest and most expensive property markets. According to CoreLogic's Home Value Index, national dwelling values slipped 0.1%, extending the streak of consecutive monthly losses to eight.Over the month, house prices fell 0.1%, outpaced by a 0.3% decline in apartments.From a year earlier, the median dwelling price fell 0.4%, the first decline seen since October 2012. From the recent cyclical peak in September 2017, the median Australian home price has fallen by 1.1% to $555,274.

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