Money Australian retail sales were terrible in March, and they may have been even worse in April

20:11  16 may  2018
20:11  16 may  2018 Source:   businessinsider.com.au

The Australian dollar fell back under US75 cents after retail sales stalled

  The Australian dollar fell back under US75 cents after retail sales stalled Australian retail sales stalled in March, coming in flat against forecast monthly growth of 0.2%. Quarterly retail sales also missed the mark, with growth of just 0.2% for the three months to March -- less than the 0.5% forecast.Currency markets have reacted and the Australian dollar is back under US75 cents for the first time in a week.Here's the price action on a five-minute chart:© Provided by Business Insider Inc AxiTrader's Greg McKenna told BI that last week's low of 0.7472 US cents now marks a key support level for the Aussie."In the very short term, yesterday’s low around 0.

Australia ’s retail sales report for May has just been released, and it’s another big beat. It also followed an enormous 1% surge in April which was the largest monthly increase in over two years. Either many Australians went on a renovating spree or they were replacing damaged goods

May retail sales for Australia are out and it is a terrible number. Sales fell 0.5% month-on-month, seasonally adjusted. Earlier this week the market expected 0.1% growth. The fall follows a collapse in consumer sentiment that started in April

National Australia Bank sign and logo.© Getty Images National Australia Bank sign and logo. In the minutes of its May monetary policy meeting, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) board noted that "household consumption had grown solidly over 2017, and recent data on retail and motor vehicle sales, as well as information from the Bank’s liaison, suggested that this momentum had continued in early 2018".

It added that "consumption had been relatively resilient to the slower growth in household income over recent years".

Well, that view may need a tweak, at least when it comes to retail sales, accounting for around a third of household consumption.

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“Previously, the worst year for closures was the 6,163 stores in 2008 – and that was at the height of Among the new gadgets that will likely move even more shopping online next year are Amazon’s But Canadian retailers will face an additional challenge in 2018, said Kruh. This year may have been a

Brazil: Unemployment has been steadily picking up in 2018 (13.1% in March versus 11.8% in Australia : The RBA has cut rates twice in the past year and Australian data is mixed. However, CPI slowed to +2.1% Y/Y in April , Retail Sales are up +10.1% Y/Y, and Industrial Production is up +6.0

Not only were retail sales flat in March, according to data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), there's now a good chance that sales may have fallen in April.

According to the National Australia Bank's (NAB) cashless retail sales index, the value of electronic transactions processed through the bank's platform fell heavily last month, declining by 0.6%.

It was the first decline reported since December last year.

"Generally most sectors were weak in April, with only cafes, restaurants and takeaway and department stores recording a month on month gain," said Alan Oster, chief economist at the NAB. "Food recorded the weakest result, followed by clothing and footwear."

The Australian dollar is stuck in a range

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Sales at retailers nationwide declined 0.2% last month, mostly because of cheaper gas and incentives by car dealers to drum up sales . Slower-than usual issuances of tax refunds may have also contributed to weaker spending in the early spring. What made the decline seem even worse , though, was a

Mall traffic is sagging. Department store sales have been in decline since 2001. Apr 24, 2017 at 9:12 am . Kent, I forgot to add: in March , total retail sales (including sales at auto dealers, grocery stores, pharmacies, etc.) were Not so much because the idea was terrible , just how it was implemented.

Given the reasonable relationship that exists between the NAB index and figures reported by the ABS, Oster says the decline does not bode well for Australia's official retail sales report released in two weeks time.

"Our mapping of the official ABS measure points to a fall of 0.2%," he says.

"This is the first drop since December 2017, which followed a very strong November. More concerningly, the April result comes after a flat ABS read in March."

So after coming in flat in March, retail sales may have deteriorated further last month.

The relationship between the NAB index and the ABS measure of retail sales is shown in the chart below.

a screenshot of a cell phone© Provided by Business Insider Inc

It's not perfect by any stretch, but it's still a fairly reliable guide on what to expect, especially given alternate reports that suggest conditions in Australia's retail sector are weak.

"While the monthly data are volatile, our latest Australian Business Survey also showed retail business conditions turning negative in April for the first time this year, further suggesting that the retail sector is losing momentum again," Oster said.

Australia retail sales go flat in March, take fizz out of economy

  Australia retail sales go flat in March, take fizz out of economy <p>Retail sales were surprisingly soft in March with spending falling on everything from clothes to restaurants.</p>Tuesday's figures from the Australian Bureau of Statistics showed retail sales were flat in March, which compared with analyst expectations for a 0.3 percent rise. After adjusting for inflation, sales edged up just 0.2 percent in the March quarter, again well short of the 0.6 percent forecast.

In what was a black month for retailers , official figures showed that sales volumes fell by a worse than expected 2.3% in April . The grim figure was partly because of a record drop in demand for fuel after panic buying in March .

The Aussie was sent lower by the worse -than-expected However, investors are concerned that the trade war between the US and China may resume, as the Australian Retail Sales Flat in March ; Aussie Drops By samed olukoya - 19 hours ago.

The NAB index is derived from around 2 million personal transactions per day using the bank's NAB platforms, including spending by consumers using debit and credit cards, BPAY and Paypal.

The bank says it is "reasonably assumed to be representative of aggregate non-cash retail sales in Australia given its large sample size".

Reflective of broader trends in cashless spending across Australia, in other words.

While we will have to wait until early June to receive Australia's official retail sales report, if sales have declined, it would be a concerning development, particularly after sales were flat in March.

Perhaps helping to explain why sales remain weak compared to prior periods, Australian wage growth -- the largest source of household income for many families -- remains incredibly weak, lifting by just 2.07% in the year to March, barely ahead of inflation.

For those in the private sector, the largest employer in Australia, real wage growth was flat over the year, crimping the ability for households to lift spending levels.

"With households under pressure from low wage growth and a slowing housing market, and tax cuts unlikely to boost incomes until the second half of 2019, we expect consumption growth will slow to around 2.0% by the end of this year, says Kate Hickie, Australia and New Zealand economist at Capital Economics, following the release of the latest Westpac-MI Australian consumer sentiment report today.

The headline confidence index fell marginally to 101.8, largely reflecting a sharp deterioration in sentiment towards current family finances.

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Source: http://au.pressfrom.com/news/money/-64236-australian-retail-sales-were-terrible-in-march-and-they-may-have-been-even-worse-in-april/

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